Published August 26, 2008

Fateful by-election for Anwar today

BN pulls out all the stops to prevent his re-election, but odds appear in his favour

By S JAYASANKARAN
IN KUALA LUMPUR
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AS the electoral contest for Permatang Pauh in Malaysia's northern Penang state drew to a close yesterday, the Barisan Nasional (BN, or National Front) government turned increasingly to personal attacks on the favourite - de facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim - indicating that the ruling coalition could be staring at a heavy defeat.

Watershed: The future of Mr Anwar and the fragile Malaysian opposition coalition is at stake in Permatang Pauh today. If he loses, the coalition would be destroyed.

National Front officials campaigned from house to house, this time arguing that police have a solid case - including DNA evidence - against Mr Anwar, who is charged with having had gay sex with a male aide.

It is not clear whether the arguments will resonate with the voters of Permatang Pauh, although officials from Mr Anwar's Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) insist the claims have been met by polite scepticism.

Indeed, the sodomy charge itself - which Mr Anwar has dismissed as trumped up - seems to have been generally viewed with distaste by voters. Efforts to publicise aide Saiful Bukhari Azlan's swearing on the Quran that he was sodomised by Mr Anwar seems to have had little traction in the constituency, according to most reports.

And on Sunday, the Muslim cleric who witnessed the swearing said in Permatang Pauh that he had been 'instructed' by his superiors to witness the event and he did not believe Mr Saiful.

What has gained traction among the constituency's ethnic Malays, however, is a claim by the National Front that Mr Anwar is 'selling out' the Malays by planning to abolish affirmative action that favours them. Deputy Premier Najib Razak said as much in a fiery speech before a bemused audience on Sunday.

Even so, Mr Anwar's chances got a major boost on Sunday when Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng, of the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP), declared today's polling day a 'special holiday'.

The Election Commission picked a working day for the poll, which most analysts figured would reduce voter turnout significantly.

Mr Lim's move has clearly rankled the National Front, with Mr Najib criticising the holiday as irresponsible.

In many ways, the by-election is a watershed in Malaysian political history. For one thing, the future of Mr Anwar - widely considered a potential prime minister - and the fragile Malaysian opposition coalition is at stake. If Mr Anwar loses, the coalition would be destroyed.

The other oddity is that for the first time, the ruling United Malays National Organisation (Umno), an urban west-coast-based political party, is taking on the opposition in a developed, west coast state controlled by the same opposition. So the levers of power, the use of the state's multi-purpose halls and many other things that Umno could take for granted previously are now denied it.

This is one of the reasons most analysts think Mr Anwar, 61, will win; indeed, going by previous elections, he should win comfortably. He held the seat from 1982 until 1999, when he was jailed on earlier sodomy and corruption charges. The sodomy charges were subsequently overturned.

After 1999, Mr Anwar's wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail retained the seat, even during the tsunami generated by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the 2004 general election, when the National Front won its biggest-ever mandate. In that vote, Ms Azizah held on by a wafer-thin 500-odd vote majority.

But she went on to increase her lead 26-fold in the recent general election on March 8, before stepping down late last month to pave the way for the by-election.

The result should be clear by 8pm tonight. Mr Abdullah will know the outcome in Johor Baru, where he will be hosting a banquet for Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, who will be in town on an official visit.