Tue Apr 06, 2010

GMG Global: a Wilmar in the making?
By VEN SREENIVASAN

A SOFT-COMMODITY giant with exposure to high-growth markets and commanding a premium over its peers because of its deep vertical integration which delivers a higher return on equity (ROE), more stable margins and stronger cash flows.

That is how Morgan Stanley described palm- oil giant Wilmar International in a 45-page report on March 26.

But this could turn out to be an apt description of mainboard-listed GMG Global as well three years down the road, or perhaps sooner.

Listed in 1999, GMG is the only pure natural rubber play on the Singapore Exchange (SGX). It has some 43,000 hectares of rubber plantation land in the African countries of Cameroon and Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast), only half of which is now under cultivation. It has also bought into two processing plants in Kalimantan, Indonesia, with a total capacity of 55,000 tonnes.

In all, GMG produced some 75,000 tonnes of natural rubber last year. This will rise to over 100,000 tonnes this year, or two-thirds of existing capacity.

In October 2008, Chinese state-owned enterprise Sinochem Corp bought a 51 per cent stake in GMG for $265 million averaging 26.5 cents per share. Last year, it picked up its share of a $100 million rights issue, effectively bringing down its price in GMG to 17 cents per share.

Sinochem is a Tier 1 state-owned enterprise (SOE). It is also China's 10th largest company by revenue, a component stock of the Shanghai Stock Exchange index, and a Fortune Global 500 company for 17 years. With assets of more than 20 billion yuan (S$4.1 billion), it is also China's largest rubber player, supplying some 300,000 tonnes last year to 150 end-users, including multinational companies in the country. The company - which also supplied 100,000 tonnes of synthetic rubber to the Chinese domestic market in 2009 - currently controls over 10.5 per cent of the Chinese market for natural rubber (for scale comparison: the second biggest player supplies just 3 per cent). It wants to raise its market share to 15 per cent.

Meanwhile, China's thirst for natural rubber has grown an average of 10 per cent annually. Last year, it consumed 2.9 million tonnes, or almost 30 per cent of global natural rubber output. The only domestic rubber supply is some 500,000 tonnes from Hainan, in southern China. The rest is imported. The price of natural rubber has risen to its highest levels since mid-2008. Not surprisingly, China considers natural rubber a strategic asset.

This places Sinochem in a unique position. It also gives GMG a unique role as Sinochem's global platform for the production, procurement and trading of natural rubber. On its part, GMG has already expressed its ambition to be among the world's largest vertically integrated natural rubber players within the next 3-5 years. But to do so, its production will have to rise five-fold.

Unlisted Lee Rubber, with its long track record, already produces some 500,000 tonnes a year. GMG has to match that.

With over $160 million of cash in the kitty and virtually no debt, the company has the means to scale up. It has already bought into a second processing plant in Kalimantan this year and is on the lookout for more. Also, only half of its 42,000 hectares of plantation land in Africa is currently planted.

But GMG has to move beyond just production and output; it has to execute its vertical integration strategy, a la Wilmar. This means scaling up its rubber trading capabilities.

Fortunately, it has a powerful parent in Sino- chem which can help make all this happen. For comparison, there is no pure listed rubber play against which GMG can be benchmarked. But there are other soft-commodity players in palm oil which have similarities. Wilmar (with a market capitalisation of some $42 billion) has a price-book value of 2.7 times. Indofood Agri ($2.2 billion) is trading at 2.2 times book. GMG ($330 million) is trading at just 1.2 times book.

Back to Morgan Stanley's report.

Just over four years ago, the newly restructured Wilmar was trading at 80 cents per share. Today, the stock is up some nine-fold. Yet Morgan Stanley reckons it is still undervalued, and has a price target of $8.00 on the stock.

GMG is not a Wilmar; at least not yet. But it has the resources, cash, market and parentage to get there. It's a question of execution

Monday April 26, 2010

Rubber prices reach new highs

By HANIM ADNAN
nem@thestar.com.my

Rise in global demand, tight supply among factors

PETALING JAYA: Rubber is one of the hottest commodities traded so far this year with price rallies seen in most international rubber exchanges.

Tyre-grade Standard Malaysian Rubber (SMR 20) has also been hitting new highs particularly in the past three months and currently trading above the RM10,600 per tonne level.

According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) director-general Prof Djoko Said Damardjati, tightness in rubber supply would remain an issue amid an upsurge in demand from China and India for their booming auto and tyre manufacturing industries.

“Severe drought, the current wintering season as well as active replanting activities in most major producing countries could affect rubber output.

“Even the preliminary estimates from members of ANRPC indicate that the global rubber supply is unlikely to rise above 6% this year,” he told StarBiz recently.

ANRPC had earlier estimate that global rubber production could reach 9.5 milllion tonnes this year, up by about 6.3% from last year’s 8.9 million tonnes.

Djoko also expected rubber supply to remain tight until 2011. A large extent of existing yielding trees in major producing countries were planted in 1980s.

“Most of the trees planted have reached declining yield phase, thus the age composition of the existing yielding area is unfavourable for yield improvement,” he added.

Djoko noted that Indonesia and Malaysia had undertaken active replanting activities since 2005.

“I believe rubber prices will remain firm for quite some time until supply recovers, possibly by early 2012.”

Apart from the buoyant demand and drought-ridden supply, he said other factors influencing the rubber market included the weakening US dollar, volatility in yen and the increasing crude oil prices.

Members of the ANRPC countries account for about 94% of the total world natural rubber production.

Interestingly, more than 45% of global consumption of natural rubber is in China, India and Malaysia, which are the major consuming countries in the ANRPC.

ANRPC in its latest report said imports from China during January to February surged 63% for natural rubber and 118% for compound rubber compared with the same period last year.

During the same period, India posted a 17% increase in natural rubber consumption, given the large-scale capacity in its auto tyre manufacturing operation.

Meanwhile, Hwang DBS Vickers Research has also raised its 2010-2012 forecast rubber prices by 39% to 44% as its previous forecasts had not taken into account the price recovery on the back of stronger crude oil prices.

The brokerage said: “We believe strong demand recovery for the automotive sector in China and supply constraint due to ongoing conversions to oil palm and the wintering season between February and April would contribute to the jump in rubber prices.Our assumptions are factoring in 29% lower prices in the second half of 2010 compared with the first half.”

One analyst with a local stockbroking firm said the recent automobile industry statistics unveiled that the pick-up in the auto sector in China and the United States had been strong.

The automobile industry is the single biggest user of latex, easily consuming about 70% of the world latex production.

While some might argue that the price upsurge could be short-term given the traditional low supply wintering season, however, many feel that the current price hike was a reflection of strong demand.

“Even with a possible price reduction down the line, natural rubber prices are unlikely to ease to the low levels of December 2008 and January 2009,” he added.