Published June 26, 2009

Outlook for Singapore banks negative: Moody's

Rating agency also has negative outlook for Asian banking industry

By LYNETTE KHOO

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MOODY'S Investors Service says the outlook for Singapore banks and the Asian banking industry is negative as it expects a substantial increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) amid rising corporate defaults.

For Singapore banks, 'NPL will peak sometime next year', said Deborah Schuler, Moody's senior vice-president and group credit officer for Asian financial institutions.

Ms Schuler was speaking at the release of Moody's latest annual Asian Banking System Outlook, which covers 16 jurisdictions.

In Singapore, loan demand has softened, while credit costs are rising as the ability of borrowers to repay has been gradually impacted, the report says. Market-sensitive income is also likely to remain volatile.

These banks have seen an increase in NPLs in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year. More NPLs are likely to come from corporate defaults, Ms Schuler noted, as the increase in credit cards delinquencies has been minor and remains lower than the levels seen three to four years ago.

Moody's has negative outlook for Singapore banks on two counts: the financial strength ratings, and long-term deposit and debt ratings. But it has a stable outlook on country ceiling for foreign currency bank deposits.

The combined assets of the three local banks represented 241 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) at end-2008.

Ms Schuler noted that the multinational corporations (MNCs) here face higher risk of defaults than big local firms, many of which are Temasek-linked companies. It remains unclear how many of these MNCs were picked up as clients by local banks last year when troubled foreign banks pulled back on some of these MNCs.

But even in a severe downturn, Moody's expects the banks 'to remain solidly positioned within the Aa rating band' thanks to their strong franchises, healthy credit profiles, well-capitalised balance sheets and strong support from the government, the report says.

For Asian banks as a whole, Moody's expects further deterioration of earnings as loans growth shrinks and asset quality weakens, driving NPLs higher.

'Such developments should not be a surprise, given bad loans typically lag GDP numbers,' the Moody's report says.

The rating agency has a negative outlook for the banking industry in the region given the uncertainty of a swift economic recovery.

There is also the uncertainty of whether the recent surge in wealth across Asia can generate sufficient levels of consumption to compensate for the lower demand from the United States and other developed economies.

'Asians save a lot of money and if they start spending, it would help,' Ms Schuler said. 'Unfortunately, what we are seeing in Asia is that governments are trying to stimulate the economies but consumers are worried and are hanging onto their cash and putting it in banks.'

The region's very high levels of single-borrower concentrations also raise asset quality risk. Moody's recent survey of single-client exposures at banks in Asia (ex-Japan) shows their credit portfolios as significantly more concentrated than those in North America.

But Moody's bank ratings in most Asian countries and territories - including Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines and Taiwan - remain largely stable as they have entered this crisis with stronger capital and liquidity, and improved risk management.