A big blow for Thailand, a test for Asean

No better time for the bloc to prove its spirit is still strong and it can recover

By LEE U-WEN
CORRESPONDENT

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AFTER the fiasco in Pattaya over the weekend which saw a key Asian summit abruptly cancelled, the chaos in Thailand has spread to the capital Bangkok, which, at least as of last night, was a city out of control. The big question is what the immediate future holds for the country and its embattled prime minister.

Awkward: The summit's cancellation was embarrassing for Mr Abhisit, who earlier said that it was a step towards normalcy

The summit's abrupt cancellation was deeply embarrassing for Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who had earlier claimed that the meeting - attended by 16 regional leaders - was an important step in the kingdom's return to normalcy after a long period of political turmoil.

Instead, a state of emergency was declared as the summit was hijacked by several thousand red-shirted pro-Thaksin protesters who successfully forced their way past rows of security cordons and burst into the conference venue.

What happened next was like a scene out of a Hollywood action movie as helicopters landed on the rooftop of the luxury hotel where the leaders were staying and whisked them off to safety, one by one.

Mr Abhisit, who was the first to flee the chaos, had to personally apologise to each of them later for the debacle.

After he got home, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said that there were 'deep problems' in Thai domestic politics; while new Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has thrown his weight behind Asean chair Thailand, saying that it should be given another chance to reconvene the summit at a later date.

But time is fast running out - not just for Thailand to sort out its own house, but for Asean and East Asia as a whole to come up with concrete responses to the ongoing global economic and financial crisis. The leaders from Japan and China, for instance, were planning to announce their new stimulus and assistance plans.

Joint statements that went unissued included one to encourage the speedy conclusion of the US$120 billion Chiang Mai Initiative, a multilateral currency swap scheme meant to help struggling member countries.

But for now, attention has shifted to the events in Bangkok, where a state of emergency was declared amid protesters running amok. Although some of the protest leaders have been arrested, it is doubtful that this will suffice to restore law and order.

An army and police crackdown - assuming that it was feasible - could restore calm, but that too is unlikely to be a durable solution, given the deep political divisions that have developed, and now intensified, in Thailand - and not only in Bangkok.

Mr Abhisit could perhaps try to reach a political compromise with the Red Shirts, but the possibility of this is slim, given the mood among the pro-Thaksin camp and the need for Mr Abhisit to maintain credibility within his own party.

As for Asean, perhaps the best way forward at this difficult period is for Thailand to bite its lip and hand the Asean chair duties to a fellow member country that can successfully organise the summit.

It will not be easy, however, to find a willing party on such short notice. Jakarta, home of the Asean secretariat, is one obvious choice, having stepped in to host a special meeting of Asean finance ministers last December after the original summit was postponed. But with Indonesia in the midst of a presidential election, that option looks highly unlikely now.

Kuala Lumpur and Singapore would be regarded as suitable venues, but Malaysia's priorities for now, understandably, are to settle in its newly formed Cabinet after Mr Najib took over as prime minister earlier this month. Singapore, meanwhile, has its hands full with hosting the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit this November.

There was some talk among the delegates in Pattaya that Vietnam, which is the incoming Asean chair, could consider assuming the role ahead of schedule. Whether that is a feasible option, however, remains to be seen.

While this past weekend's catastrophe may be seen as the worst in Asean's 42-year history, there is no better time for the 10-member bloc to prove to the world that its spirit is still strong and it can recover from this setback.

There has been much good work done in the past few months - in particular, the successful entry into force of the Asean Charter.

Despite this latest blow to its credibility, Asean - long derided as nothing more than a talk shop - must display solidarity at this difficult time and go ahead and hold the summit, if not in Thailand, then somewhere else.