Published March 21, 2009

We can't be like the Last of the Mohicans

MM Lee highlights dilemma of Singapore's low birth rate and need for talent

By LEE U-WEN

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ONE constant worry on Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's mind these days is babies - specifically, a shortage of them.

The country's poor birth rate of just 1.29 is a problem, he said, and unless that figure can move up to the replaceable level of 2.1, there is a fear that foreigners in Singapore could well make up the majority of the population in time to come.

But at the same time, the Republic's hands are tied as, like most countries around the world, it cannot prosper without the contributions of foreign talent in society.

'We are caught in a bind. We have got to decide that this is our country, our society and we must remain the majority. Yes, we will take in immigrants, but we must be the majority, otherwise they will change us,' he said yesterday as he mapped out his vision for Singapore in the next 25 years.

He was speaking in a 75-minute dialogue organised in conjunction with the official opening of the National University of Singapore Society's new alumni complex at its Kent Ridge campus.

'I think 25 years from now, Singapore will be more cosmopolitan. There are many people from China, India, Malaysia; we have European children doing National Service. Their parents have come here, seen that this is a nice place, and have chosen to stay here because we offer equal opportunities,' he said.

What puzzles Mr Lee, however, is why Singaporeans are still not reproducing even with various incentives such as baby bonuses and the provision of top-quality child care.

He cited a number of worrying statistics: many Singaporean women are marrying later, well into their 30s, with some not tying the knot at all. About a third of male Singaporean graduates also choose to remain single.

'Maybe their standards are too high,' he said to much laughter from his audience of academics, policymakers, government officials and students. 'The same is happening in China. Even in Japan, the women are not marrying. And this creates a problem for us, and without new citizens or PRs, we are going to be like the Last of the Mohicans.'

Turning to another big worry - the global economic crisis - Mr Lee said that Singapore's economic growth model will still largely remain focused on exports even when the world makes a recovery. Singapore does not have a big domestic market, and has to rely mainly on exports, to the extent that its imports and exports are 'the highest in the world' as a percentage of gross domestic product.

'The optimistic scenario is that two to three years pass and we are out of this. At the worst, four to six years. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank have said that Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan are all going to be hit, because we are export-dependent. But when recovery takes place, we know we are going to bounce back,' he said.

As far as Singapore's political future is concerned, the Minister Mentor said that he would not be perturbed if an opposition government comes into power in future. Rather, he would be more concerned over whether the people forming that new ruling party had the right mix of integrity, ability, experience and a willingness to do what is necessary for the country, and not for their personal interests.

As the dialogue drew to a close, Mr Lee once again stressed the fact that Singapore had to be 'sufficiently flexible and imaginative' as the world changes. And to fit in well would require a steady stream of talented people, both local and foreign.

'We will make Singapore a city that offers opportunities to all, and rewards everybody according to their contributions. There will be no discrimination,' he said. 'This will bring a lot of talent here. Can we do this? Yes, we can. Will it cause discomfort? Sure. Will it be right in the end? Yes.'

Singaporeans could not afford to be 'afraid' of talent, because not embracing them would hinder the country's progress, he said.