Published January 15, 2009

Earnings of SGX, HKEx set to dive, ASX to outperform

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(SYDNEY) Profits at the Singapore and Hong Kong stock exchanges are expected to more than halve due to tumbling trading volumes and a lack of IPOs, but their Australian rival is set to outperform after a wave of capital raisings and lower payments to brokers.

Against the trend: The Australian Securities Exchange saw a wave of capital raisings last month. First-half net profit is expected to be flat even though volumes fell 25% in the equities market and 28% in the derivatives market

Asia's three major listed bourses have all suffered from a steep fall in trading volumes of stocks and other securities as a worldwide slump in equity markets sidelines investors.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing , Asia's largest listed exchange operator, is expected to post a 56 per cent slump in the final 2008 quarter to HK$950 million (S$183 million), based on full-year estimates from 14 analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.

'Clearly the index level has fallen, market capitalisation has come off and the macroeconomic situation is deteriorating so we can expect shrinking market activity and lower turnover,' said Dominic Chan, analyst with BNP Paribas in Hong Kong.

'2009 is likely to be worse than 2008. I expect turnover to fall by 20 per cent while retail appetite for derivatives will fall, hitting the futures and options market,' he added.

The story is similar in Singapore, which has also been hit by a collapse of the city-state's IPO markets and lower stock and derivative trading volumes.

The Singapore Exchange will likely report October-December net profit of around S$65 million, down 58 per cent from S$156 million a year ago, four analysts surveyed by Reuters said.

'(Stock) trading in December, amounting to S$16.65 billion, was the slowest in three years,' Lim & Tan Securities said in a note to clients.

Going against the trend, the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), Asia-Pacific's third-biggest listed bourse, is expected to see fairly flat first-half net profit even though volumes fell by around 25 per cent in the equities market and about 28 per cent in the derivatives market.

A December wave of capital raisings helped bolster earnings, while the fall in trading volumes means ASX will pay little or none of the rebates to brokers it paid a year ago for meeting trading targets, analysts said.

A Reuters poll of five analysts predicts ASX will post half-year net profit of A$180 million (S$179.4 million), versus A$187.4 million a year earlier.

Shares in ASX fell 45 per cent in 2008, outperforming HKEx which tumbled 67 per cent and SGX which slid 63 per cent. All three exchange companies underperformed their benchmark indexes. -- Reuters