Published October 6, 2008

MALAYSIA INSIGHT
Keen fight likely for Umno V-P

Analysts expect it to boil down to a contest between ministers Muhyiddin and Zahid

By S JAYASANKARAN
KL CORRESPONDENT
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ON or just before Thursday, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, 67, will announce that he will not seek re-election for the presidency of the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), Malaysia's dominant political party.

That much is self-evident because at least three candidates have announced plans to contest the deputy presidency in the belief that Mr Abdullah will hand over the presidency to Umno deputy president Najib Razak, 55, when Umno holds its triennial polls in March next year - leaving the deputy's post vacant. By convention, Umno's deputy president also assumes the post of deputy prime minister.

Mr Abdullah has remained silent all this time - fuelling talk among some of his allies that he is still contemplating a run for the presidency. But that is wholly unlikely as he could get humiliated in the process. Running for the presidency requires a minimum of 58 nominations from Umno's 191 divisions, but that could be a big task for the embattled premier given the current mood of disquiet among the party's rank and file.

And so history will repeat itself. Like Tunku Abdul Rahman before him in 1970, Mr Abdullah will remain prime minister and party president until he opens the Umno assembly in March, after which he will depart from the Umno meeting as Private Citizen Abdullah.



With that, all eyes will shift to the transition. Mr Najib is widely expected to win the presidency - perhaps even unopposed. Although former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, 71, has vowed to contest the presidency, it isn't clear if he will get the requisite nominations.

Mr Abdullah's exit could leave some casualties in his wake. His son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin is the current deputy Umno Youth chief and wants to move up. Standing in his way are former Selangor chief minister Khir Toyo and Mukhriz Mahathir, who are also bidding for the post of Umno Youth head. Of the three, Mr Mukhriz, son of the almost-revered former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, could hold the edge because, in the current climate, Mr Khairy's ties to Mr Abdullah could prove to be a liability.

The Umno deputy presidency will be keenly fought, although qualifying candidates need a minimum of 38 nominations each. As many as six people are likely to offer themselves. Of the six, three have already done so - Minister of Religious Affairs Zahid Hamidi, Nur Jazlan Mohamad, an Umno division chief in Johor, and Ali Rustam, the Chief Minister of Malacca.

Meanwhile, International Trade Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, Umno information chief Mohamad Mohamad Taib and Isa Samad, the former chief minister of Negri Sembilan, are also expected to join the fray after Mr Abdullah announces his decision. For all that number, most analysts expect the fight to boil down to a contest between Mr Muhyiddin, 61, and Mr Zahid, 51. Mr Muhyiddin is the favourite because he was the first Umno leader to blow the whistle on Mr Abdullah, urging him to step down almost immediately after the March 8 general election.

Mr Zahid is a former Umno Youth leader who retains a formidable party network at rank-and-file levels. He was also a former political secretary to Mr Najib and some of Mr Abdullah's allies, who dislike Mr Muhyiddin because of his 'insubordination', have put it about that Mr Najib would prefer Mr Zahid as his deputy rather than the dour-faced Mr Muhyiddin.

There's no doubt whoever Mr Najib prefers may win. But some of Mr Najib's allies insist he will remain neutral. The surprise might come from Dr Mahathir when he makes clear his choice which, going by his previous hints, could be Mr Muhyiddin. But it's early days yet. There is still Mr Abdullah's long goodbye to go - all six months of it.