Published September 8, 2008
MALAYSIA INSIGHT
Investors and politicians all wait for Sept16
Whether or not Anwar succeeds in his plan to overthrow the govt, political uncertainty won't go away overnight
By PAULINE NGKL CORRESPONDENT

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WHEN Wall Street plunged 3 per cent last Thursday after the release of new retail and jobless data that showed a further softening in the economy, local investors held their breath fearing the bourse would follow suit.
They needn't have worried. With so few trading the market, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell only by slightly more than one per cent. Since the March 8 general election and the Opposition's shock inroads into Malaysia's corridor of powers, investors have moved to the sidelines waiting for the aftershocks to subside.
Now half a year later, Malaysia hasn't provided any cogent reasons for them to buy into the market, with the lack of trading activity prompting some players to ask for shorter trading hours. The smart money is on the wait dragging on as political events unfold, given that all the energies appear to be channelled there.
In the immediate term, nothing has captured the public's imagination as the idea of Sept 16 - the date opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has set to take over the federal government by engineering the defection of at least 30 lawmakers to his Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
Sept 16 is, of course, the date on which Malaysia was established after Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore joined the Federated States of Malaya. Singapore left in 1965 to become an independent nation.
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Because of their kingmaker role, it is Sabah and Sarawak MPs that Anwar is said to be mainly focusing his powers of persuasion on. Whether he will be able to effect the crossovers remains to be seen, but with less than 10 days to go the countdown - and the corresponding anxiety or excitement depending on the individual's viewpoint - is growing increasingly palpable.
The widespread rumours circulating last Friday foreshadow the mind-games ahead. A fake alert that a number of component parties in the ruling National Front were poised to announce their defection that day had the whole nation scrambling to ascertain the veracity of the rumour. The parties said to be planning to defect - mainly Sabah and Sarawak-based ones - were quick to scotch the rumour. However, that isn't preventing a nervous National Front (NF) from transporting a planeload of its parliamentary backbenchers overseas to an as-yet unidentified country this week, ostensibly on a study tour of new agriculture methods. Given the manner in which the tour has been managed - why do some 50 backbenchers suddenly need to learn more about agriculture, for example? - the inescapable conclusion appears the NF is shipping the MPs out of the country in a desperate attempt to prevent further collusion with Anwar - if indeed there had been any in the first place.
Compounding the so-called defection countdown is a roiling 'he said she said finger-pointing' quarrel between personalities in Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's United Malays National Organisation and its component parties over an alleged racial comment during campaigning in the recent by-election in Permatang Pauh, Penang, which Anwar won.
As the days go by, Mr Abdullah is finding himself further squeezed between his party's wish to always have the last say and other component party members in the coalition that are insisting on fairer play and equal say.
Come Sept 16, regardless of whether Anwar proves successful or not, the political uncertainty will not disappear overnight. Some analysts believe Anwar's credibility will be shot to pieces should the date pass without anything to show for. Others are not so certain it would necessarily signal his political death knell. At this juncture, the only certainty is that never before has the country observed Malaysia Day with such great attention.