CDL Hospitality Trusts: 2H11 to benefit from completed AEI (DMG)

(BUY, S$2.10, TP S$2.41)

2Q11 DPU rose 15% YoY, in-line with expectation. CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) reported DPU of 2.96S¢ (+15.2% YoY; +24.4% QoQ), representing 24% of our FY11 DPU estimate. Net property income rose 24% YoY to S$29.1m in 2Q11 (+18.1% QoQ) mainly due to 1) maiden contribution from Studio M Hotel which was acquired in 3 May 2011, and 2) higher RevPAR for Singapore Hotels at S$205 (+4.8% YoY; +5.1% QoQ), marginally offset by 3) drop in Orchard Hotel capacity due to refurbishment works. Given that the hotel business in Singapore is usually stronger in second half of the year, we expect CDLHT to post higher DPU in subsequent quarters. On the back of 1) lower FY11 distributable income payout assumption of 90% (prev 95%), and 2) higher FY11-FY12 average occupancy rate (AOR) at 88.6-89% (prev FY11-12 AOR: 88-87.5%), we adjusted our FY11-12 DPU by -4.8 - +2.2% respectively. Maintain BUY with lower TP of S$2.41, based on DDM (COE: 8.9%; TGR: 3.0%).

Income retention at 10% for 1H11 led to lowering of our assumption. In order to finance the hotel refurbishment works, the management has decided to retain 10% of distributable income vs historical retention rate of 5% in FY08-09. Hence, we reduced our distributable income payout assumption for FY11 to 90%. Meanwhile, Orchard Hotel and Novotel Clarke Quay underwent asset enhancement (AEI) works during 2Q11 which resulted in loss of 5,550 room nights (est ~2-3% of total Singapore hotel room nights). Following a greater level of AEI completion, we expect CDLHT’s performance to be boosted by the new capacities, and higher average room rates (ARR) as a result of AEI.

Strong tourist arrival growth. During Jan-May 2011, tourist arrivals rose 15% YoY to 5.3m, on track to meet Singapore Tourism Board’s (STB) projection of 12-13m in 2011. Meanwhile, hotel supply is expected to rise by only 5.1% in FY11. Hence, we believe CDLHT will continue to be the beneficiary of rising ARR and occupancy rates due to demand outstripping supply for hotels.

Nusajaya to be turned into an ICT-powered smart city

UEM and Iskandar Investment tie up with Cisco to develop masterplan for the project

By MALMINDERJIT SINGH

A PLAN to transform Nusajaya, a part of Iskandar Malaysia, into a smart city with superior information and communications technology (ICT) was unveiled yesterday.

Mr Wan Abdullah: Says the plan further enhances Nusajaya's attractiveness to both investors and potential residents

UEM Land Holdings Berhad (UEM) and Iskandar Investment Berhad (IIB) will collaborate with Cisco to develop an ICT and Services Smart City masterplan to turn Nusajaya into a Smart+Connected Community.

Smart+Connected Communities are Cisco's revolutionary architecture and vision for urban development, which are built on the idea of transforming traditional physical communities into connected communities to realise economic, social and environmental sustainability.

This is done by allowing everyone in the community access to technology solutions in all day-to-day activities - be it at home, school, office, services or transport - via integrated operations centres that use the ICT network as an underlying platform.

As this is aligned with the government's goal to establish a Digital Malaysia masterplan to create integrated and interconnected developments to accelerate growth across all sectors of the economy, all stakeholders involved were excited by the prospects of this collaboration.

'In addition to providing a solid foundation for businesses to thrive, integration of the latest technologies will also enhance the quality of life of residents,' said Syed Mohamed Syed Ibrahim, president and chief executive officer of IIB.

He added that residents will also benefit from this as families will have access to the likes of public services and medical consultations via video conferencing.

'The Smart+Connect Community in Nusajaya will create a revolutionary digital urban operating system in the development of the larger masterplan community in Iskandar Malaysia,' he added.

'This collaboration with Cisco is a major step towards realising our vision of a Smart+Connected Nusajaya, which is envisioned to be one of the leading modern living communities.

'Leveraging on ICT, Nusajaya offers sustainable, safe, secure, urbanised and highly interactive progressive lifestyle. The proposition further enhances Nusajaya's attractiveness to both investors as well as potential residents,' added Wan Abdullah Wan Ibrahim, managing director and chief executive officer of UEM.

Cisco, and a consortium of local and international expert partners - including Mesiniaga, a leading Malaysian system integrator, and KT u-City Consulting - will develop smart city infrastructure and services blueprints among other deliverables as part of the Smart City masterplan.

Cisco is executing Smart+Connected Communities projects around the world in cities such as Amsterdam, London, Toronto and Songdo, South Korea.

The portfolio of services covers integrated city operations, public safety and security, smart transportation, education, retail, commercial office, leisure and tourism.

'Cisco and our collaborating partners are delighted to be selected by UEM and IIB to create the Smart+Connected Communities masterplan for Nusajaya. . .

'Nusajaya has the potential to become a leading model for Cisco's Smart+ Connected Communities vision worldwide. All the right ingredients are in place - government participation, visionary developers and an ecosystem of private sector expertise - to bring to life a Smart+ Connected Nusajaya,' explained Anil Menon, Cisco's president of Globalisation and Smart+Connected Communities.

UEM and IIB have collaborated on other projects in Nusajaya, notably in the mixed-development project in Medini, Nusajaya, known as the Lifestyle Retail Mall and Residences @ Medini North.

Yesterday's announcement was the culmination of a two-year engagement between UEM, IIB and Cisco, during which the two main developers evaluated Cisco's smart city framework as well as Smart+ Connected Community projects around the world.

A key driver of Iskandar Malaysia, Nusajaya with its 9,700ha of contiguous development-ready land, is one of the largest property developments in Asia.

中资银行股已有投资价值

本周以来，上证综指从2800点上方逐步回落，引发市场关于反弹是否结束的担忧。香港投资评论家曹仁超认为，未来股指上升空间不大；牛市二期应拣股不看市；中资银行股已有投资价值，但因为外资看淡，所以短期上升空间有限，较大幅度的上升应该从明年开始。

货币政策最快四季度放松

中国证券报：7月以来，A股一直在2800点附近纠缠不休，2610点以来的行情，是超跌反弹，还是你之前所说的三季度上攻行情正式启动？

曹仁超：在分析大市之前首先要确定股市处于什么水平。2008年11月至2009年8月是牛市一期，然后进入漫长的牛市二期，一般可长达两三年。牛市二期指数升降幅度不大，例如上证综指在2600点至3100点之间波动，每次回落到2600点附近都是吸纳机会。牛市二期应拣股不看市。香港过去一年工业股跌幅较大，消费股升幅较大，相信A股也一样。

中国证券报：投资界普遍预期下半年内地通胀形势会好转，货币政策不会再收紧，为何指数犹豫不决？

曹仁超：内地CPI在7月见顶机会很大，因为除食品价格外，其余产品售价7月起已开始回落。由于央行日前已宣布加息，下半年最多还有一次加息及两次上调存款准备金率的可能。货币政策最快要到今年四季才会放松，因此下半年A股仍无法摆脱牛市二期，直到明年上半年。

中国证券报：内地GDP增速已经开始放缓，企业利润似乎不太乐观，是不是意味着牛市二期不如想像中美好，支撑牛市二期的主要因素有哪些？

曹仁超：内地GDP增速放缓是好事。世界上没有任何国家或地区GDP经过30年高速增长后仍不放缓，中国不能例外。支持牛市二期的因素是货币政策不太松也不太紧。企业利润整体而言仍在上升，主要是工业股净利润回落，消费股、地产股、银行股等净利润仍在上升，但升幅不及2009年。因此出现净利润增幅放缓，市盈率下降的局面。

不必担心中资银行股

中国证券报：之前有海外著名投行发报告认为，中国地方政府债务将出现违约风险，从而看空中资银行股。但近日又有消息称，6月中旬以来，摩根士丹利、摩根大通和黑石斥资超过10亿港元增持中资银行H股。地方政府债务会否出现大规模违约？中资银行目前的投资价值如何？

曹仁超：只有不了解中国实情的分析员才会担心中资银行股。他们认为内地楼价可以回落50%，打死我也不信上述情况会出现。当然内地楼价下调10%到15%的可能存在，上述下调幅度不会引发中资银行出现呆坏账危机。外国分析员以日本1990年至2008年楼价跌幅或1997年至2003年香港楼价跌幅为参照，而忽略了中国是新兴市场，每年有二千万人口由农村流入城市，内地人均收入将由每年4000美元上升到未来每年12000美元，因此我不认同内地楼价会大幅下的调论。

至于地方政府债务，有些地方出现大规模违约不奇怪，但大量地方政府出现违约机会不大。因为中国的土地有价值，而且中央政府财力雄厚。中资银行股目前已有投资价值，但因为外资看淡，短期上升空间有限，我相信较大幅度的上升会从明年开始，目前处于筹码收集期。

中国证券报：债务问题横跨欧美大陆，近期美国债务和欧洲债务问题困扰欧美股市，而国际大宗商品市场却持续走强，这是不是预示着美国有可能推出QE3，黄金等贵金属价格会否继续上升？

曹仁超：债务问题仍困扰欧美，此乃中国GDP增速放缓的原因之一，因出口不振只能依赖内需。美国出台QE3机会不大，因为QE2并不见效。相信金价仍在高位牛皮但升幅不大，例如在1400美元至1600美元区间上下波动。

中国证券报：近期，中资概念股在海外频频遭到猎杀，看空风潮从美国吹到加拿大甚至香港，海外上市的中资概念股的主要问题在哪里？做空中资概念股是一场阴谋，还是海外资本市场监管制度的问题？

曹仁超：因为到美、加上市的中资概念股都无法在香港上市，属次货级别，它们影响到目前在港上市的中资概念股也遭猎杀。经过这一轮清洗后反而是好事，代表到今年四季大部分中资概念股都将见底可以买入。